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Tuesday, January 30 • 8:20am - 8:40am
SYMPOSIA-09: Ecological Niche Modeling to Disentangle the Effects of Climate and Eutrophication on Minnesota Lakes

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AUTHORS. Peter C. Jacobson, Gretchen J.A. Hansen, Bethany J. Bethke, Tim K. Cross - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

ABSTRACT. Eutrophication and climate warming have profoundly affected Minnesota lakes in the past centruy. Ecological niche modeling provides a method for disentangling the effects of these powerful, but different stressors. Models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896–1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981–2010). Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance.

Tuesday January 30, 2018 8:20am - 8:40am

Attendees (8)