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Tuesday, January 30 • 10:40am - 11:00am
SYMPOSIA-09: Using Decision Analysis to Improve Resource Management When the Future Is Uncertain

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AUTHORS. Max Post van der Burg, USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

ABSTRACT. Resource managers often need to make difficult decisions. Often the sources of difficulty stem from complex trade-offs between management objectives, an overwhelming number of choices, and uncertainty about the effects of management actions. Decision analysis is a discipline that, among other things, uses formal structuring and modeling tools to clarify difficult decisions. In this talk, I will outline three case studies to illustrate the application of these tools to resource management problems. The first case study is an analysis of optimal planning decisions for National Park Service cultural resources that may be effected by climate change. The solution of this problem illustrates the use of structuring tools for quantifying trade-offs and optimization tools for developing management plans. The second case study focuses on assessing the value of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative. This exercise demonstrates two approaches to assessing how valuable new information would be in changing the decisions made by partners. The third case describes the development of an adaptive management system for control of annual bromes in National Parks. This project treats management activities as an experiment and resolves uncertainty with machine learning to forecast optimal management actions into the future. These case studies are not exclusive of the types of problems decision analysis can help solve. Rather they are intended to demonstrate how science can be directly integrated into the decision making process. 

Tuesday January 30, 2018 10:40am - 11:00am
102C

Attendees (2)